Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico

Oral Presentation C7.1

Authors

  • Catalina Medina Mexican National Institute of Public Health
  • Pamela Coxson University of California San Francisco
  • Joanne Penko University of California San Francisco
  • Ian Janssen Queen's University
  • Sergio Bautista-Arredondo Mexican National Institute of Public Health
  • Simón Barquera Mexican National Institute of Public Health
  • Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo Mexican National Institute of Public Health; University of California San Francisco

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14288/hfjc.v14i3.680

Keywords:

Physical Inactivity, Cardiovascular Diseases, Type 2 Diabetes, Mortality, Mexico

Abstract

Background: Physical inactivity (PI) is associated with the development of non-communicable chronic diseases. Purpose: The purposes of this study were to estimate the extent to which the 31% relative increase in PI among 35-64 years old Mexicans between 2006 and 2012 influenced diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of the World Health Organization recommended 10% and 15% relative decrease in PI on CVD and T2D incidence and mortality by 2025 and 2030, respectively. Methods: Estimates were derived using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a computer simulation, Markov model. Model inputs included cross-national data on PI levels from 2006 and 2012 measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and the published literature review on the independent relationship between PI and cardiometabolic risk. Results: The model estimated that the 31% increase in PI resulted in an increase in the number of cases of T2D (27,100), coronary heart disease (10,300), stroke (2,200), myocardial infarction (1,500), stroke deaths (400) and coronary heart disease deaths (350). A hypothetical 10% lowering of PI by 2025 compared to status quo is projected to prevent 8,400 cases of T2D, 4,200 cases of CHD, 1,000 cases of stroke, 700 cases of MI, and 200 deaths of CHD and stroke. A 15% reduction resulted in larger decreases. Conclusions: While the burden of T2D and CVD raised from 2006 to 2012 in association with increased PI, achieving the WHO targets by 2030 could help reverse these trends.

Published

2021-09-30

How to Cite

Medina, C., Coxson, P., Penko, J., Janssen, I., Bautista-Arredondo, S., Barquera, S., & Bibbins-Domingo, K. (2021). Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico: Oral Presentation C7.1. The Health & Fitness Journal of Canada, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.14288/hfjc.v14i3.680

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